Sunday, September 28, 2008

Twilight of the Machines - book review

Twilight of the Machines,
by John Zerzan

Publishers Blurb:

The mentor of the green anarchist and neo-primitive movements is back with his first book in six years, confronting civilisation, mass society, modernity and technoculture - both the history of its developing crisis and the possibilities for its human and humane solutions. As John Zerzan writes, These dire times may yet reveal invigorating new vistas of thought and action. When everything is at stake, all must be confronted and superseded. At this moment, there is the distinct possibility of doing just that.




Review:

Zerzan's new set of essay's strike me as having some bug-bears aired, that argue in favour of the hypothesis that he has completely lost the plot. He rants obsessively about a small range of pet subjects, and appears, frankly, to be "not even wrong", he is so far off-beam.

The Post-Modern

One of his shibboleth's here is 'the post-modern'. I am actually unsure what he means by post-modern. I have read a reasonable amount of post-modernist material myself, and agree with critics such as Sobal, Bookchin, and theoretically Zerzan himself - it is a bankrupt and (so amoral it is in fact) immoral, creating a "nothing is true, so everything is permitted" ideology that is hugely destructive. I see the po-mo outlook as having positive application in the area of aesthetics - so, art, architecture, etc. - but absolutely no merit once applied outside that subjectivist field. That morality is problematic when applied as a Universal Imperative is no reason to race to an opposite extreme of relativism where all is permissible - a balance should be sought. Through modernism and the renaissance, ideologically, a balance may be achievable, though we may argue where the balance-point should be: but post-modernism has a different ideological conclusion, wherein all 'relative' points are equal, all 'truths' are equal. This absurdity is rightly railed against by Zerzan.

So, why do I have a problem with his approach? Because, his discourse relies upon post-modern interpretations of events, and post-modern rhetoric, throughout the book. In fact, this is most noticeable at the moments that he is most rabidly attacking po-mo nonsense. And, also, when he is adopting an interpretation of archaeology that suits his argument, and when he is arguing "against civilization".

Eden

His interpretation of archaeology appears to be, frankly, pseudo-religious. He attacks the "nasty brutish and short" (sic) brigade as being fad-ish, whilst himself entertaining another fad - that of "halcyon days in Elysium's Fields". This defence of the 'proof' that we were once lovely to each other, but then fell out of balance with the universe, is no more cogent than that we were once nasty shits, but then civilisation came along to give us the tools to transcend that. Both are more or less nonsense, and the arguments that Zerzan makes veer from po-mo rubbish to pseudo-religious rubbish. In fact, his position is one that is hard to disentangle from primitive bronze-age religious notions of a garden of Eden, from which we “fell”.

What is 'Civilisation'? What is 'Technology'?

Zerzan's attack on civilisation suffers from similar indeterminacy on exactly what he means by the term. But, when he does make clear statements, they verge on hysterical and ludicrous exaggerations that boil down to "it all went wrong when we invented language" and "it began to be destructive when women and men experienced a division of labour", as if we even were 'human before the former, and as if the latter cannot occur in a “state of nature”.

However, arguing that civilisation is rooted in language and the division of labour, is not 'etymologically true' (though, elsewhere, he does acknowledge the slightly more sophisticated interpretation, that civilisation arose from city culture, which arose once populations surplus to that needed to merely farm &/or hunt were supportable - and then attacks this 'agrarian revolution' as a prime cause of civilisation, too, consigning his optimal humans to a hand-to-mouth existence, art the mercy of the seasons, etc.). Nor is it true in any other important sense.

Suggesting that, without language and a division of labour, civilisation may have never arisen, is a fair point - but does it condemn language and the division of labour? You could equally trace the existence of Hitler back to “Adam and Eve” (if you believe in them - I don't of course, but they can stand in place of earlier evolved states of man), and thus decide that destroying “Adam and Eve” is appropriate as a method of saving ourselves from the very real problems our recent free-market industrial consumerist culture has created. This is absurd, and, as Bookchin would note, also anti-human. If you believe it you may as well drop the bomb tomorrow and be done with it.

Zerzan's later chapters vaguely hint at his solutions (more on this later) in a way that implies that, despite this evidence to the contrary, 1] he actually doesn't want to extinguish humanity completely, and that 2] he has a positive view of how we might save at least a few of us (a misguided one, though).

He also assaults technology as a prime problem with our culture. I am tired of rehearsing the same old arguments to separate technological advance through scientific discovery from capitalist and class-ist misappropriation of some technologies for bad ends, but Zerzan surely hasn't understood the difference. That the two are entangled is true, that ideas can have dynamics inherent in them, regardless of the intentions of (at least some) of those that use them is true, but acknowledging this is not the same as chucking the baby out with the bathwater. Yet Zerzan specialises doing just that.

Either / Or - The Excluded Middle

The logical problem that Zerzan faces is created by his binary either/or, +/- approach to logical exegesis. Essentially, there can be no middle, no compromise, no balance, no grey area in his philosophical approach - the middle is excluded. He is blind to it.

Yet it is only when analysing binary data that a binary conclusion is valid, such as a two-body science/math experiment. Introduce even one new element, and things get weird - the three-body problem emerges: this is a problem in any mathematical model, whether cosmological, economic or whathaveyou, and one that gets worse the more elements we introduce. His view of what science is is mired in pre-complexity ideology, and judged on those terms. It is ironic that his own discourse suffers from a similarly reductionist and binary logic as the idea he has of what science is. Reductionism as an inescapable adjunct of rationalism and science is an outdated idea. In philosophy and daily discourse it should also be seen and accepted as being outdated.

Zerzan is far from alone in being led by the nose of reductionism and the excluded middle in his own philosophical stumbling, but he is one of the more extreme examples of it.

Thus, for example, the ideas mentioned above, about first causes, about the roots of civilisation in language (something he uses himself rather a lot!), etc. all are mis-argued, as all are hunted down in an extremist either/or manner. Truth is by definition excluded from such debate. His placement of technology, of the written and spoken word, of alphabets, of gender divisions in a population, etc., are all reductionist in extremis, and frankly that makes him dangerous.

Face-To-Face?

He begins to hint at ways forward toward the end of the anthology. Here, he mentions native american 'way-of-life' spiritualism.

He pines for the connectedness of locality, taking another religious precedent in his stride - that of John 1:12, "Having many things to write unto you, I would not write with paper and ink: but I trust to come unto you, and speak face to face, that our joy may be full" (he has no problem, evidently, with paper himself).

This attitude is made most apparent in the chapters on virtual reality and on-line community. Here, he sorely mis-apprehends the possibilities offered to many who have found that their 'real' neighbours have been turned into Stepford clones that display all the trappings both Zerzan and I would expect of mass society in a media-controlled, unempowered and over-populated world. Now, whilst the internet can also enhance these dehumanising effects, it also has the potential to create a global commons and indeed, qua McLuhan, a 'global village' that is defined by the people, in and through their affinity groups, rather than by capitalist globalisations global mass culture. The Rational Response Squad myspace sites illustrate the capacity of a virtual community to be more important, and in a positive way, than the members 'real' community is, genuinely saving lives and allowing members to find ways to survive in their 'real' 'community'.

In Conclusion

A conflation of his anti-virtuality and pro-'way of life' embedded tribal localism indicates his 'way forward'. These are the only clues he offers, bar destruction of everything else, and so he inevitably will be judged in this review on the basis of them. I find it ironic that he has spent so much time railing against all of civilisation, including presumably the plough, the wheel, fire, medical knowledge..., and acknowledging that the civilisation we have at present is driving us to a crash (and a possible extinction) that he avowedly deplores - yet, at the same time he gestures at 'solutions' that would be viable only for the tiniest minority of those alive today. The survivalist subtext is worrying, and frankly renders his misapplication of blame in our societies problems all the more dangerous.

Taken in whole, this book is full of cant, anti-humanism, hypocrisy and foolishly blinkered attempts to philosophise about the nature of the problems we face today. This is a shame. It also is more than that - a danger. Anyone who takes him at face value and fails to analyse his arguments more deeply will be a potential danger not only to himself and his targets (many of whom we might not like much ourselves), but also to any attempt to change things. There is a saying that your enemy's enemy is your friend, but it is never clearer than in Zerzan's work that primitivism is one enemy of our mutual enemies who is absolutely no friend of ours.

There are many themes here I intend to expand upon elsewhere in the future, so I hope that the sketchy nature of some of my points can be forgiven. It will take a lot more than a review of this book to address the more pressing issues raised here.

In sum, I cannot recommend this book on any level. The compilation he edited a few years back, Against Civilisation, was a varied and interesting book (though I'd be lying if I said I'd go along with everything in it), and friends assure me that Zerzan has made other interesting and valid contributions of his own in the past. However, sadly, this is not one of them.

– Review: Tim Barton

Monday, August 11, 2008

How Can We Revamp Democracy? 5 Answers From Science Fiction

http://io9.com/5031825/how-can-we-revamp-democracy-5-answers-from-science-fiction

How Can We Revamp Democracy? 5 Answers From Science Fiction

Democracy's self-destruct mechanism has been activated! And the computer voice — which sounds like the drone of a thousand cable news anchors — is counting down to the end of our precious system of government. As the information age and the hypermedia explosion turn democracy into a crazy spin game, it's increasingly likely we'll need to look at other models of allocating our dwindling resources. So it's a good thing science fiction offers us a number of alternative models for future government.

Science fiction isn't particularly positive when it comes to democracy. Democratic governments are too quick to rush into stupid wars and give power to despots, like Senator Jar Jar in the Star WarsDoctor Who shows some mob uprisings in a happy light on occasion, but also lampoons democracy as a system that forces politicians to pander to the people, or else get electrocuted, in "Vengeance On Varos." prequels.

Winston Churchill famously said democracy is the worst system of government — apart from all the others that've been tried. But Winnie The Chill never tried living under a council of artificial intelligences, or a merged mega-consciousness. Here are some ideas for a post-democratic form of government from science fiction:

Let the artificial intelligences call some of the sho

ts.

Considering that our voting machines may already be choosing our candidates for us, it may just make sense to let truly independent AIs run the show instead. We'll see how long farm subsidies, corporate welfare and earmarks last when you have a system of AI control in place.

Maybe the most famous example of government-by-AI is Iain M. Banks' "Culture" n

ovels, in which the artificial "Minds" govern without corruption or undue favor. They're not entirely impartial, because they appear to have whims and idiosyncrasies in some of his books. But the main criticism people have leveled at them is that they're "too good." In place of laws, people in the Culture are governed by reputation and good manners, and even the Minds can gain or lose reputation according to their behavior. Only the best Minds get to be Hub Minds, controlling whole biospheres themselves.

The novels of Isaac Asimov also often depict a "roboc

racy" ruled by machines or computers.

Give the keys to the White House to a merged consciousness.

In Peter F. Hamilton's Night's Dawn trilogy, the Edenists live in peace on space stations orbiting gas giants. Their secret of harmonious living: "Affinity," a form of telepathy where everybody is linked. All Edenists join together to create a government in a process known as "Consensus," where they link all their minds together. When an Edenist gets old, he/she can back up his/her consciousness and live on for hundreds more years inside the habitat, before gradually becoming submerged into the habitat's shared consciousness.

Try techno-democracy, with a system of distributed government.

In Tobias Buckell's new novel Sly Mongoose, we discover that the inhabitants of the planet Chilo use brain implants to allow a large cross-section of their populations to control their representatives directly. "There are three hundred thousand people from a variety of Aeolian cities voting on my every word because I'm their avatar, emissary, diplomat, or whatever you would like to call me," says Katerina. She signed up for this duty when she became a citizen, and was randomly selected. She has all of their voices "sitting behind her skull," and if she doesn't do a good job, she could be fined, exiled, or lose her citizenship. Just imagine if you could vote on every word that comes out of George W. Bush's mouth!

Give the techno-hippie/green/feminist socialist utopia a chance.

In novels like A Door Into Ocean by Joan Slonczewski and Woman At The Edge Of Time by Marge Piercy, everybody lives in harmony and everything is decided by the collective. In Ocean, the underwater happy lesbians are actually called the Sharers of Shora, and they share everything together. They live on rafts, or in the water, and use the verb "share" as much as possible. In the utopian future of Edge Of Time, everything is communal and people live in small towns that are "own-fed" (self-sustaining) and peaceful. Men breast-feed and everybody lives according to rituals and customs.

And then there's the happy future of Star Trek and especially The Next Generation. Want and deprivation have been eliminated, nobody owns anything, and everything is peaceful and mellow unless Deforest Kelley is yelling in your ear. Thanks to inventions like the replicator (and an apparently inexhaustible supply of energy) the citizens of the Federation can make anything they want. And though we only get hints here and there about the government of the Federation, it's clearly not a democracy — there's never any mention of voting, and we see the Federation Council and President making decisions in a somewhat unilateral fashion.

Or try anarchism.

There are a few examples of functioning anarchist societies in science fiction. In Ursula K. LeGuin's The Dispossessed, for example, the anarchist followers of Odo split off from the mainstream society and form their own quasi-anarchist society. In theory, there are no laws on Anarres, and you can do whatever you want with your time. The main constraint is that you need to be able to work with others and gain their support in order to have access to the scarce resources on the planet. There's no property, so everything is shared, but our hero Shevek discovers over the course of the novel that there are still structures of authority, and you still have to kiss the ass of the man.

And then there's The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress by Robert Heinlein, his main venture into anarchism. The lunar citizens have no written laws, and no way of enforcing contracts except based on someone's reputation. As one of Heinlein's mouthpieces says:

We don’t have laws. Never been allowed to. Have customs, but aren’t written and aren’t enforced — or could say they are self-enforcing because [they] are simply way things have to be, conditions being what they are. Could say our customs are natural laws because the way people have to behave to stay alive.


Thanks to Lauren Davis for research help.

Sunday, July 20, 2008

Book Review - Seven Wonders for a Cool Planet

Seven Wonders for a Cool Planet:
Everyday Things to Help Solve Global Warming
by Eric Sorenson & The Staff of Sightline Institute

Paperback: 120 pages
Publisher: COUNTERPOINT; (Sierra Club Books)
ISBN-10: 1578051452
ISBN-13: 978-1578051458

Orders:
http://www.turnaround-psl.com/main/book_search.cfm?bookid=81287

Blurb:

What do a clothesline, a locally grown tomato and a microchip have in common?

They're all ordinary things, or wonders, that can have extraordinary impact in the fight against global warming. Each wonder is profiled in a short, lively chapter that is also a springboard for exploring the key issues behind global warming. It also explains how these issues form a greater web with planetary concerns. With its inspiring vision and sound explanations of complex processes, this hopeful little book offers a powerful template for personal action.


Review:

This small book feels like it is aimed at those who are already converts to the reality of, not only, global warming, but also of the fact that we need to act, and act now. At the same time, it is sized nicely as a gift from those if us that 'get it', to, perhaps, our more challenged friends.

The Seven Wonders are, as the cover illustration makes clear, the library book; the clothesline; the real tomato; the bicycle; the ceiling fan; the microchip and the condom.

In fact, as you may surmise, a number of these actually stand in for whole categories of easily utilised sustainable tools.

The real tomato is less about tomatoes than it is about local and sustainably produced foodstuff in general, with the tasteless beef tomato from the supermarket versus the flavoursome small crimson taste-bomb you can grow in your windowbox as a hook to get your interest.

The clothesline stands in for any low energy / low tech alternative to energy intensive equipment found in every home, regardless of true need.

The condom stands in for developing a real awareness of population problems and
sustainability - though as a tool it may be unsurpassed: now that no less a personage than the Pope has come out against over-population, perhaps it is also time to more publicly trumpet the virtues of the sheath!

Bicycles are another stand-in for less energy intensive ways of going about our daily lives, this time the bigger picture being the need for a recalibration of our lifestyle to more local horizons.

The ceiling fan will be an oddity to readers in temperate climes. How is this a good thing? Surely doing without them is better. Who do we know who uses a ceiling fan outside the set of It Ain't 'alf Hot Mum? However, the book is produced by the Sierra Club [http://www.sierraclub.org/] (whose offices are in San Francisco) and the Sightline Institute [http://www.sightline.org] - it is aimed most immediately at an American market (obvious, too, from the US oriented statistics and the pricing of things in dollars). Thus, the norm they are fighting against is an overweening reliance on energy-intensive air-con - for cooling in summer and heating in winter. In this environment a ceiling fan is a low energy boon. The writers also take into account modern building techniques, pointing out that even the fan may be otiose in the context of better insulated homes.

The microchip also seems to be an odd one out. And despite their arguments, I remain troubled by it's inclusion. Whilst microchips often aid regulation of equipment that can save energy, the rare metals, the oil dependent industrial processes, the heavy use of solvents in those processes, and the dubious 'necessity' of much of the equipment it helps run more efficiently mitigate against regarding it as a solution rather than a problem. Indeed, promoting an alternative mindset is the subject of much of the rest of the book - cf: the chapters on clotheslines, ceiling fans, bikes, and real tomatoes...

The library book is another interesting wonder. Again, it could stand in for lend-and-hire of other things as well. But, as Michael Moore makes clear in his book Stupid White Men (see chapter 5, Idiot Nation). libraries in America are in trouble. In the UK they also seem bereft of, erm..., books. So promoting them as a good tool against climate change, replacing mass consumption of books for home libraries is a great idea - the library must be fought for and revived. However, a couple of problems remain - in the short term, whilst libraries are run down, unless you want common denominator bullshit (or a very long wait) the library is not much use (though frankly the bookshop too is increasingly limited); and also, the internet (and all it's energy use put in the balance against the decrease in goods transported - barring internet placed hard copy orders, of course) has been responsible for a serious reduction in the sales of books as well as of lending.

One might also question the wisdom of publishing a book for mass distribution that advocates lower resource use and the replacement of mass market books with (presumably) lower print-run for-libraries-only titles. Instead, the book could have been a website; or a series in Scientific American, National Geographic or the New York Times. A counter-argument that these ideas are important enough to justify a small format low page count title of this sort would be, one, fair enough, but, two, an opening of the floodgates to "but I can justify mine as an exception too" - who should be the arbiter? Given that books are not, generally, printed on demand, the answer "the market will decide that" won't wash. Those who side with Sierra Club (and I count myself amongst them) might say "let Al Gore decide", but I'd also have to agree with those that may feel that to be a repression of the freedom of expression of others. I hasten to add that the book doesn't suggest this anyway: in fact, it doesn't seek to justify the possibly contradiction between it's own existence and it's espousal of library books as a global warming solution, or even seem to realise the question may be asked.

However, the book does, I think, pretty much succeed in achieving what it sets out to do. It covers a lot more ground than the chapter headings alone might suggest, and does it succinctly and in a readable and interesting style. One minor gripe, linked directly to their success in keeping a low page count, might be that there are too few references to bolster quoted statistics and facts, but there are some notes on sources in the back and also contact details or weblinks, so if you had a burning need to find the source of a particular item you are given some means of finding out.

So, to reiterate my first point, I think that many of the potential readers for this book are already converts to it's position, which may limit it's sales. But, that it also makes a great idea as a gift to people you may know who aren't on board with the paradigm shifts that are upon us, but who you believe are open to argument.

Perhaps more to the point, I enjoyed reading it and found it to be a fun presentation of some interesting - and important - material.

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Ecology: The moment of truth—an introduction, by John Bellamy Foster, Brett Clark & Richard York

Ecology: The moment of truth—an introduction

By John Bellamy Foster, Brett Clark and Richard York

http://links.org.au/node/518

* * *

The July-August 2008 (Volume 60, Number 3) edition of the influential US socialist journal Monthly Review is a special issue on ``Ecology: The Moment of Truth”, edited by Brett Clark, John Bellamy Foster and Richard York. The issue is devoted to the planetary environmental emergency. It is essential reading for all socialists and environmentalists. With permission from Monthly Review, Links International Journal of Socialist Renewal here posts the introduction by the editors, and urges Links' readers to purchase the issue and/or subscribe to Monthly Review.

* * *

It is impossible to exaggerate the environmental problem facing humanity in the twenty-first century. Nearly fifteen years ago one of us observed: “We have only four decades left in which to gain control over our major environmental problems if we are to avoid irreversible ecological decline.”12 Other crises such as species extinction (percentages of bird, mammal, and fish species “vulnerable or in immediate danger of extinction” are “now measured in double digits”);3 the rapid depletion of the oceans’ bounty; desertification; deforestation; air pollution; water shortages/pollution; soil degradation; the imminent peaking of world oil production (creating new geopolitical tensions); and a chronic world food crisis—all point to the fact that the planet as we know it and its ecosystems are stretched to the breaking point. The moment of truth for the earth and human civilization has arrived. Today, with a quarter-century still remaining in this projected time line, it appears to have been too optimistic. Available evidence now strongly suggests that under a regime of business as usual we could be facing an irrevocable “tipping point” with respect to climate change within a mere decade.

To be sure, it is unlikely that the effects of ecological degradation in our time, though enormous, will prove “apocalyptic” for human civilization within a single generation, even under conditions of capitalist business as usual. Measured by normal human life spans, there is doubtless considerable time still left before the full effect of the current human degradation of the planet comes into play. Yet, theperiod remaining in which we can avert future environmental catastrophe, before it is essentially out of our hands, is much shorter. Indeed, the growing sense of urgency of environmentalists has to do with the prospect of various tipping points being reached as critical ecological thresholds are crossed, leading to the possibility of a drastic contraction of life on earth.

Such a tipping point, for example, would be an ice free Arctic, which could happen within two decades or less (some scientists believe as early as 2013). Already in summer 2007 the Arctic lost in a single week an area of ice almost twice the size of Britain. The vanishing Arctic ice cap means an enormous reduction in the earth’s reflectivity (albedo), thereby sharply increasing global warming (a positive feedback known as the “albedo flip”). At the same time, the rapid disintegration of the ice sheets in West Antarctica and Greenland points to rising world sea levels, threatening coastal regions and islands.4

The state of the existing “planetary emergency” with respect to climate change was captured this year by James Hansen, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the leading U.S. climatologist:

Our home planet is dangerously near a tipping point at which human-made greenhouse gases reach a level where major climate changes can proceed mostly under their own momentum. Warming will shift climatic zones by intensifying the hydrologic cycle, affecting freshwater availability and human health. We will see repeated coastal tragedies associated with storms and continuously rising sea levels. The implications are profound, and the only resolution is for humans to move to a fundamentally different energy pathway within a decade. Otherwise, it will be too late for one-third of the world’s animal and plant species and millions of the most vulnerable members of our own species.5

According to environmentalist Lester Brown in his Plan B 3.0, “We are crossing natural thresholds that we cannot see and violating deadlines that we do not recognize. Nature is the time keeper, but we cannot see the clock....We are in a race between tipping points in the earth’s natural systems and those in the world’s political systems. Which will tip first?”6 As the clock continues to tick and little is accomplished it is obvious that the changes to be made have to be all the more sudden and massive to stave off ultimate disaster. This raises the question of more revolutionary social change as an ecological as well as social necessity.

Yet, if revolutionary solutions are increasingly required to address the ecological problem, this is precisely what the existing social system is guaranteed not to deliver. Today’s environmentalism is aimed principally at those measures necessary to lessen the impact of the economy on the planet’s ecology without challenging the economic system that in its very workings produces the immense environmental problems we now face. What we call “the environmental problem” is in the end primarily a problem of political economy. Even the boldest establishment economic attempts to address climate change fall far short of what is required to protect the earth—since the “bottom line” that constrains all such plans under capitalism is the necessity of continued, rapid growth in production and profits.

The dominant economics of climate change

The economic constraint on environmental action can easily be seen by looking at what is widely regarded as the most far-reaching establishment attempt to date to deal with The Economics of Climate Change in the form of a massive study issued in 2007 under that title, commissioned by the UK Treasury Office.7 Subtitled the Stern Review after the report’s principal author Nicholas Stern, a former chief economist of the World Bank, it is widely viewed as the most important, and most progressive mainstream treatment of the economics of global warming.8 The Stern Review focuses on the target level of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) concentration in the atmosphere necessary to stabilize global average temperature at no more than 3°C (5.4°F) over pre-industrial levels. (CO2e refers to the six Kyoto greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide [CO2], methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride—all expressed in terms of the equivalent amount of CO2. While CO2 concentration in the atmosphere today is 387 parts per million [ppm], CO2e is around 430 ppm.)

The goal proposed by most climatologists has been to try to prevent increases in global temperature of more than 2°C (3.6°F) above pre-industrial levels, requiring stabilization of atmospheric CO2e at 450 ppm, since beyond that all sorts of positive feedbacks and tipping points are likely to come into play, leading to an uncontrollable acceleration of climate change. Indeed, James Hansen and other climatologists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies have recently argued: “If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm.”9Stern Review, however, settles instead for a global average temperature increase of no more than 3°C (a threshold beyond which the environmental effects would undoubtedly be absolutely calamitous), which it estimates can likely be achieved if CO2e in the atmosphere were stabilized at 550 ppm, roughly double pre-industrial levels. The

Yet, the Stern Review acknowledges that current environmental sensitivities “imply that there is up to a one-in-five chance that the world would experience a warming in excess of 3°C above pre-industrial [levels] even if greenhouse gas concentrations were stabilised at today’s level of 430 ppm CO2e.” Moreover, it goes on to admit that “for stablisation at 550 ppm CO2e, the chance of exceeding 3°C rises to 30–70%.” Or as it states further on, a 550 ppm CO2e suggests “a 50:50 chance of a temperature increase above or below 3°C, and the Hadley Centre model predicts a 10% chance of exceeding 5°C [9°F] even at this level.” A 3°C increase would bring the earth’s average global temperature to a height last seen in the “middle Pliocene around 3 million years ago.”

Furthermore, such an increase might be enough, the Stern Review explains, to trigger a shutdown of the ocean’s thermohaline circulation warming Western Europe, creating abrupt climate change, thereby plunging Western Europe into Siberian-like conditions. Other research suggests that water flow in the Indus may drop by 90 percent by 2100 if global average temperatures rise by 3°C, potentially affecting hundreds of millions of people. Studies by climatologists indicate that at 550 ppm CO2e there is more than a 5 percent chance that global average temperature could rise in excees of 8°C (14.4°F). All of this suggests that a stabilization target of 550 ppm CO2e could be disastrous for the earth as we know it as well as its people.

Why then, if the risks to the planet and civilization are so enormous, does the Stern Review emphasize attempting to keep global warming at 3°C by stabilizing CO2e at 550 ppm (what it describes at one point as “the upper limit to the stabilisation range”)? To answer this it is necessary to turn to some additional facts of a more economic nature.

Here it is useful to note that an atmospheric concentration level close to 550 ppm CO2e would result by 2050 if greenhouse gas emissions simply continued at present levels without any increases in the intervening years. However, as the Stern Review itself notes, this is unrealistic under business as usual since global greenhouse gas emissions can be expected to continue to increase on a “rapidly rising trajectory.” Hence, an atmospheric CO2e level of 550 ppm under more realistic assumptions would be plausibly reached by 2035. This would increase the threat of 750 ppm CO2e (or more) and a rise in global average temperature in excess of 4.3°C (7.7°F) within the next few decades after that. (Indeed, IPCC scenarios include the possibility that atmospheric carbon could rise to 1,200 ppm and global average temperature by as much as 6.3°C [11.3°F] by 2100.)

To counter this business-as-usual scenario, the Stern Review proposes a climate stabilization regime in which greenhouse gas emissions would peak by 2015 and then drop 1 percent per year after that, so as to stabilize at a 550 ppm CO2e (with a significant chance that the global average temperature increase would thereby be kept down to 3°C).

But, given the enormous dangers, why not aim at deeper cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, a lower level of atmospheric CO2e, and a smallerincrease in global average temperature? After all most climatologists have been calling for the stabilization of atmospheric CO2e 450 ppm or less, keeping the global temperature increase at about 2°C above pre-industrial levels. While Hansen and his colleagues at NASA’s Goddard Institute have now gone even further arguing that the target should be 350 ppm CO2.

The Stern Review is very explicit, however, that such a radical mitigation of the problem should not be attempted. The costs to the world economy of ensuring that atmospheric CO2e stabilized at present levels or below would be prohibitive, destabilizing capitalism itself. “Paths requiring very rapid emissions cuts,” we are told, “are unlikely to be economically viable.” If global greenhouse gas emissions peaked in 2010 the annual emissions reduction rate necessary to stabilize atmospheric carbon equivalent at 450 ppm, the Stern Review suggests, would be 7 percent, with emissions dropping by about 70 percent below 2005 levels by 2050. This is viewed as economically insupportable.

Hence, the Stern Review’sown preferred scenario, as indicated, is a 550 ppm target that would see global greenhouse gas emissions peak in 2015, with the emission cuts that followed at a rate of 1 percent per year. By 2050 the reduction in the overall level of emissions (from 2005 levels) in this scenario would only be 25 percent. (The report also considers, with less enthusiasm, an in-between 500 ppm target, peaking in 2010 and requiring a 3 percent annual drop in global emissions.) Only the 550 ppm target, the Stern Review suggests, is truly economically viable because “it is difficult to secure emission cuts faster than about 1% per year except in instances of recession” or as the result of a major social upheaval such as the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Indeed, the only actual example that the Stern Review is able to find of a sustained annual cut in greenhouse gas emissions of 1 percent or more, coupled with economic growth, among leading capitalist states was the United Kingdom in 1990–2000. Due to the discovery of North Sea oil and natural gas, the United Kingdom was able to switch massively from coal to gas in power generation, resulting in a 1 percent average annual drop in its greenhouse gas emissions during that decade. France came close to such a 1 percent annual drop in 1977–2003, reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 0.6 percent per year due to a massive switch to nuclear power. By far the biggest drop for a major state was the 5.2 percent per year reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the Former Soviet Union in 1989–98. This however went hand in hand with a social-system breakdown and a drastic shrinking of the economy. All of this signals that any reduction in CO2e emissions beyond around 1 percent per year would make it virtually impossible to maintain strong economic growth—the bottom line of the capitalist economy. Consequently, in order to keep the treadmill of profit and production going the world needs to risk environmental Armageddon.10

Accumulation and the planet

None of this should surprise us. Capitalism since its birth, as Paul Sweezy wrote in “Capitalism and the Environment,” has been “a juggernaut driven by the concentrated energy of individuals and small groups single-mindedly pursuing their own interests, checked only by their mutual competition, and controlled in the short run by the impersonal forces of the market and in the longer run, when the market fails, by devastating crises.” The inner logic of such a system manifests itself in the form of an incessant drive for economic expansion for the sake of class-based profits and accumulation. Nature and human labor are exploited to the fullest to fuel this juggernaut, while the destruction wrought on each is externalized so as to not fall on the system’s own accounts.

“Implicit in the very concept of this system,” Sweezy continued, “are interlocked and enormously powerful drives to both creation and destruction. On the plus side, the creative drive relates to what humankind can get out of nature for its own uses; on the negative side, the destructive drive bears most heavily on nature’s capacity to respond to the demands placed on it. Sooner or later, of course, these two drives are contradictory and incompatible.” Capitalism’s overexploitation of nature’s resource taps and waste sinks eventually produces the negative result of undermining both, first on a merely regional, but later on a world and even planetary basis (affecting the climate itself). Seriously addressing environmental crises requires “a reversal, not merely a slowing down, of the underlying trends of the last few centuries.” This, however, cannot be accomplished without economic regime change.11

With climate change now more and more an establishment concern, and attempts to avert it now increasingly institutionalized in the established order, some have pointed to the “death of environmentalism” as an oppositional movement in society.12 However, if some environmentalists have moved toward capitalist-based strategies in the vain hope of saving the planet by these means, others have moved in the opposite direction: toward a critique of capitalism as inherently ecologically destructive. A case in point is James Gustave Speth. Speth has been called the “ultimate insider” within the environmental movement. He served as chairman of the Council on Environmental Quality under President Jimmy Carter, founded the World Resources Institute, co-founded the Natural Resources Defense Council, was a senior adviser in Bill Clinton’s transition team, and administered the United Nations Development Programme from 1993 to 1999. At present he is dean of the prestigious Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies. Speth is a winner of Japan’s Blue Planet Prize.

Recently, however, in his Bridge at the Edge of the World: Capitalism, the Environment, and Crossing from Crisis to Sustainability (2008), Speth has emerged as a devastating critic of capitalism’s destruction of the environment. In this radical rethinking, he has chosen to confront the full perils brought on by the present economic system, with its pursuit of growth and accumulation at any cost. “Capitalism as we know it today,” he writes, “is incapable of sustaining the environment.” The crucial problem from an environmental perspective, he believes, is exponential economic growth, which is the driving element of capitalism. Little hope can be provided in this respect by so-called “dematerialization” (the notion that growth can involve a decreasing impact on the environment), since it can be shown that the expansion of output overwhelms all increases in efficiency in throughput of materials and energy. Hence, one can only conclude that “right now...growth is the enemy of [the] environment. Economy and environment remain in collision.” Here the issue of capitalism becomes unavoidable. “Economic growth is modern capitalism’s principal and most prized product.” Speth favorably quotes Samuel Bowles and Richard Edwards’s Understanding Capitalism, which bluntly stated: “Capitalism is differentiated from other economic systems by its drive to accumulate, its predisposition toward change, and its built-in tendency to expand.”

The principal environmental problem for Speth then is capitalism as the “operating system” of the modern economy. “Today’s corporations have been called ‘externalizing machines.’” Indeed, “there are fundamental biases in capitalism that favor the present over the future and the private over the public.” Quoting the system’s own defenders, Robert Samuleson and William Nordhaus, in the seventeenth (2001) edition of their textbook on Macroeconomics, Speth points out that capitalismis the quintessential “Ruthless Economy,” engaged “in the relentless pursuit of profits.”

Building on this critique, Speth goes on to conclude in his book that: (1) “today’s system of political economy, referred to here as modern capitalism, is destructive of the environment, and not in a minor way but in a way that profoundly threatens the planet”; (2) “the affluent societies have reached or soon will reach the point where, as Keynes put it, the economic problem has been solved...there is enough to go around”; (3) “in the more affluent societies, modern capitalism is no longer enhancing human well-being”; (4) “the international social movement for change—which refers to itself as ‘the irresistible rise of global anti-capitalism’—is stronger than many imagine and will grow stronger; there is a coalescing of forces: peace, social justice, community, ecology, feminism—a movement of movements”; (5) “people and groups are busily planting the seeds of change through a host of alternative arrangements, and still other attractive directions for upgrading to a new operating system have been identified”; (6) “the end of the Cold War...opens the door...for the questioning of today’s capitalism.”

Speth does not actually embrace socialism, which he associates, in the Cold War manner, with Soviet-type societies in their most regressive form. Thus he argues explicitly for a “nonsocialist” alternative to capitalism. Such a system would make use of markets (but not the self-regulating market society of traditional capitalism) and would promote a “New Sustainability World” or a “Social Greens World” (also called “Eco-Communalism”) as depicted by the Global Scenario Group. The latter scenario has been identified with radical thinkers like William Morris (who was inspired by both Marx and Ruskin). In this sense, Speth’s arguments are not far from that of the socialist movement of the twenty-first century, which is aimed at the core values of social justice and ecological sustainability. The object is to create a future in which generations still to come will be able to utilize their creative abilities to the fullest, while having their basic needs met: a result made possible only through the rational reorganization by the associated producers of the human metabolism with nature.13

Such rational reorganization of the metabolism between nature and society needs to be directed not simply at climate change but also at a whole host of other environmental problems. Some of these are addressed in the present issue: the geopolitics of peak oil (John Bellamy Foster), the production of biofuels as a liquid fuel alternative and its consequences (Fred Magdoff), the economics of climate change (Minqi Li), the science of climate change (John W. Farley), the ocean crisis (Brett Clark and Rebecca Clausen), the problem of large dams (Rohan D’Souza), and the world water crisis (Maude Barlow). Other ecological crises of great importance are not, however, dealt with here: species extinction (and loss of biological diversity in general), deforestation, desertification, soil degradation, acid rain, the proliferation of toxic wastes (including in living tissues), market-regulated biotechnology, urban congestion, population growth, and animal rights.

No single issue captures the depth and breadth of what we call “the environmental problem,” which encompasses all of these ecological contradictions of our society and more. If we are facing a “moment of truth” with respect to ecology today, it has to do with the entire gamut of capitalism’s effects on natural (and human) reproduction. Any attempt to solve one of these problems (such as climate change) without addressing the others is likely to fail, since these ecological crises, although distinct in various ways, typically share common causes.

In our view, only a unified vision that sees human production as not only social, but also rooted in a metabolic relation to nature, will provide the necessary basis to confront an ecological rift that is now as wide as the planet. Such a unified vision is implicit in the articles included in this issue. A more explicit treatment of the political aspects of this struggle will appear in a second special issue of Monthly Review on ecology (meant to complement this one) to be published this coming fall.

Why not?

In 1884, William Morris, one of the great creative artists, revolutionary socialist intellectuals, and environmental thinkers of the late nineteenth century, wrote an article entitled “Why Not?” for the socialist journal Commonweal. He was especially concerned with the fact that most people, including many socialists in his time, in rebelling against the evils of capitalism, tended to picture the future in terms that were not that far removed from many of the worst, most environmentally and humanly destructive, aspects of capitalism itself.

“Now under the present Capitalist system,” Morris observed,

it is difficult to see anything which might stop the growth of these horrible brick encampments; its tendency is undoubtedly to depopulate the country and small towns for the advantage of the great commercial and manufacturing centres; but this evil, and it is a monstrous one, will be no longer a necessary evil when we have got rid of land monopoly, manufacturing for the profit of individuals, and the stupid waste of competitive distribution.

Looking beyond the “terror and the grinding toil” in which most people were oppressed, Morris argued, there was a need to recognize other ends of social existence: most notably “the pleasure of life to be looked forward to by Socialists.” “Why,” he asked,

should one third of England be so stifled and poisoned with smoke that over the greater part of Yorkshire (for instance) the general idea must be that sheep are naturally black? And why must Yorkshire and Lancashire rivers run mere filth and dye?

Profits will have it so: no one any longer pretends that it would not be easy to prevent such crimes against decent life: but the ‘organizers of labour,’ who might better be called ‘organizers of filth,’ know that it wouldn’t pay; and as they are for the most part of the year safe in their country seats, or shooting—crofters’ lives—in the Highlands, or yachting in the Mediterranean, they rather like the look of the smoke country for a change as something, it is to be supposed, stimulating to their imaginations concerning—well, we must not get theological.

In rejecting all of this, Morris asked, was it not possible to create a more decent, more beautiful, more fulfilling, more healthy, less hell-like way of living, in which all had a part in the “share of earth the Common Mother” and the sordid world of “profit-grinding” was at last brought to an end? Why not?14

Notes
1. John Bellamy Foster, The Vulnerable Planet (New York: Monthly Review Press, 1994), 12. The four decades projection was based on work by the Worldwatch Institute: Lester R. Brown, et. al., “World Without End,” Natural History (May 1990): 89, and State of the World 1992 (London: Earthscan, 1992), 3–8.

2. James Hansen, “Tipping Point,” in E. Fearn and K. H. Redford eds, The State of the Wild 2008 (Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 2008), http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2008/2008_Hansen_1.pdf, 7–15. See also James Hansen, “The Threat to the Planet,” New York Times Review of Books, July 13, 2006. The argument on tipping points with respect to climate change is best understood in the context of a series of biospheric rifts generated by the system of economic accumulation. On this see Brett Clark and Richard York, “Carbon Metabolism and Global Capitalism: Climate Change and the Biospheric Rift,” Theory and Society 34, no. 4 (2005): 391–428.

3. Lester R. Brown, Plan B 3.0 (New York: W.W. Norton, 2008), 102. The share of threatened species in 2007 was 12 percent of the world’s bird species; 20 percent of the world’s mammal species; and 39 percent of the world’s fish species evaluated. See International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, Table 1, “Numbers of Threatened Species by Major Groups of Organisms,” http://www.iucnredlist.org/info/stats. Additionally, climate change is having significant effects on plant diversity. “Recent studies predict that climate change could result in the extinction of up to half the world’s plant species by the end of the century.” See Belinda Hawkins, Suzanne Sharrock, and Kay Havens, Plants and Climate Change (Richmond, UK: Botanic Gardens Conservation International, 2008), 9.

4. David Spratt and Philip Sutton, Climate Code Red (Fitzroy, Australia: Friends of the Earth, 2008), http://www.climatecodered.net, 4; Brown, Plan B 3.0, 3; James Hansen, et al., “Climate Change and Trace Gases,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 365 (2007), 1925–54; James Lovelock, The Revenge of Gaia (New York: Basic Books, 2006), 34; Minqi Li, “Climate Change, Limits to Growth, and the Imperative for Socialism,” this issue; “Arctic Summers Ice-Free ‘by 2013,’” BBC News, December 12, 2007.

5. Hansen, “Tipping Point,” 7–8.

6. Brown, Plan B 3.0, 4–5. Although Brown, correctly depicts the seriousness of the ecological problem, as a mainstream environmentalist he insists that all can easily be made well without materially altering society by a clever combination of technological fixes and the magic of the market. See the article by Minqi Li below.

7. Nicholas Stern, The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007).

8. The Stern Review has been criticized by more conservative mainstream economists, including William Nordhaus, for its ethical choices, which, it is claimed, place too much emphasis on the future as opposed to present-day values by adopting a much lower discount rate on future costs and benefits as compared to other, more standard economic treatments such as that of Nordhaus. This then gives greater urgency to today’s environmental problem. Nordhaus discounts the future at 6 percent a year; Stern by less than a quarter of that at 1.4 percent. This means that for Stern having a trillion dollars a century from now is worth $247 billion today, while for Nordhaus it is only worth $2.5 billion. Nordhaus calls the Stern Review a “radical revision of the economics of climate change” and criticizes it for imposing “exessively large emissions reductions in the short run.” John Browne, “The Ethics of Climate Change,” Scientific American 298, no. 6(June 2008): 97–100; William Nordhaus, A Question of Balance (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2008), 18, 190.

9. James Hansen, et. al., “Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?,” abstract of article submitted to Science, (accessed in May 2008). Even before this Hansen and his colleagues at NASA’s Goddard Institute argued that due to positive feedbacks and climatic tipping points global average temperature increases had to be kept to less than 1°C below 2000 levels. This meant that atmospheric CO2 needed to be kept to 450 ppm or below. See Pushker A. Kharecha and James E. Hansen, “Implications of ‘Peak Oil’ for Atmospheric CO2 and Climate,” Global Biogeochemistry (2008, in press).

10. Stern, The Economics of Climate Change, 4–5, 11–16, 95, 193, 220–34, 637, 649–51; “Evidence of Human-Caused Global Warming is Now ‘Unequivocal,’” Science Daily, http://www.sciencedaily.com; Browne, “The Ethics of Climate Change,” 100; Spratt and Sutton, Climate Code Red, 30; Editors, “Climate Fatigue,” Scientific American 298, no. 6 (June 2008): 39; Ted Trainer, “A Short Critique of the Stern Review,” Real-World Economics Review, 45 (2008), http://www.paecon.net/PAEReview/issue45/Trainer45.pdf, 54–58. Despite the Stern Review’s presentation of France’s nuclear switch as a greenhouse gas success story there are strong environmental reasons for not proceeding along this path. See Robert Furber, James C. Warf, and Sheldon C. Plotkin, “The Future of Nuclear Power,” Monthly Review 59, no. 9 (February 2008): 38–48.

11. Paul M. Sweezy, “Capitalism and the Environment,” Monthly Review 41, no. 2 (June 1989): 1–10.

12. Michael Shellenberger and Ted Nordhaus, “The Death of Environmentalism,” Environmental Grantmakers Association, October 2004, http://thebreakthrough.org/PDF/Death_of_Environmentalism.pdf.

13. James Gustave Speth, The Bridge at the End of the World: Capitalism, the Environment, and Crossing from Crisis to Sustainability (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2008), xi, 48–63, 107, 194–98; Samuel Bowles and Richard Edwards, Understanding Capitalism (New York: Oxford University Press, 1985), 119, 148–52. On the Global Scenario Group see John Bellamy Foster, “Organizing Ecological Revolution,” Monthly Review 57, no. 5 (October 2005): 1–10. On ecological sustainability, classical socialism, and Marx’s critique of capitalism’s metabolic rift with nature see John Bellamy Foster, Marx’s Ecology (New York: Monthly Review Press, 2000).

14. William Morris, “Why Not,” in Morris, Political Writings (Bristol: Thoemmes Press, 1994), 24–27.